Stagflation strikes back

Authored by Krishan Gopaul and Johan Palmberg

  • The risk of stagflation has increased materially since we addressed the topic last year
  • Europe appears to be at greater risk than the US, due to higher exposure to soaring commodity prices and a weaker economic position, but alarm bells could soon ring across the Atlantic, too
  • Year-to-date, gold has performed well, arguably reflecting the Ukraine crisis and the ongoing reflationary environment
  • But should stagflation become widespread it could provide further support for gold as a diversifier and risk hedge

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Short-term gold performance model: how it works and why it matters

Our short-term gold performance model enables investors to dissect monthly gold returns into key drivers of investment demand. Different estimation windows provide additional insights on the varying influence of drivers over time. During May, our model shows gold’s performance was only modestly impacted by rates but they still remain a relevant driver this year.

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